Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
The Union government will take a bit longer to introduce the much-awaited labour codes even as the majority of states and Union Territories (UTs) have framed rules on them. There were speculations that these would be introduced from July 1. While 30 states and UTs have framed rules on the code on wages, 25 of them have done so on industrial relations. Of the two remaining codes, 24 states and UTs have framed rules on social security and 23 on occupational safety, health, and working conditions (OSH), sources said.
The government expects indirect tax collection to be lower than the Budget Estimate (BE) of Rs 13.38 trillion this fiscal year, despite prospects of netting goods and services tax (GST) in large amounts, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj has said. "Indirect tax collection may see lower realisation than budgeted on account of cuts in excise and customs duties. "We could see a shortfall of about Rs 1.5 trillion on account of those," he told Business Standard.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
While the likelihood of these states going the Lanka or Greece way may be an alarming assessment, the financial situation of some states such as Punjab and West Bengal is indeed quite weak.
Their implementation is expected to create investment owing to improving ease of doing business as well as initiating pro-worker measures.
If other states follow suit, it is going to become difficult for the GST Council to decide on the next stage of reforms.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
'The signal is crude oil prices will rise, I am cutting my subsidy. Be prepared, prices will rise.'
Deciding the goods and services tax rate on fryums papad could be a messy affair with the Appellate Authority for Advance Rulings (AAAR) of Gujarat now ruling that the ready-to-eat product would draw 18 per cent rate. In that connection, it slightly modified the ruling of the state-based Authority for Advance Rulings (AAR). The AAR had also ordered that these products would draw 18 per cent GST but under a different classification.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
'There will always be a challenge to maintain a fine balance to ensure that the growth keeps happening and inflation is contained.'
'The classic thing we need as a country is the virtuous cycle where you have robust demand which leads to more capital spending which in turn leads to more job creation and more money in the hands of people.'
Five years after demonetisation, which sought to curb black money and reduce cash circulation in the economy, 70 per cent of respondents said they paid a large component of the total payment towards a real estate transaction in cash. About 16 per cent said they paid over half the amount in cash, observes Shyamal Majumdar.
After the government sought Parliament's nod for a second batch of supplementary demand for grants that will cause a hit of Rs 2.99 trillion to the exchequer, doubts suddenly arose about the government's ability to meet the Budget projections of reining in its fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), or Rs 15.06 trillion, for the current financial year. Till now, many were of the opinion that the government would succeed in checking the deficit at a much lower figure than what was given in the Budget Estimates (BE). The government had sought Parliament's approval to spend Rs 3.74 trillion extra, but Rs 74,517.01 crore will be matched by equal savings on other heads.
Come January and the government is empowered to send its recovery officials to your premises to collect GST without notice, if your tax liability shown in the requisite form is less than what invoices, mentioned in the outward supply form, should draw. The relevant provision in the Finance Act, 2021, will come into effect from January 1, 2022, according to a gazette notification issued on Tuesday. Under the GST system, there are two kinds of returns that a company is required to file monthly if its turnover is over Rs 5 crore annually. These are form GSTR-1 and GSTR-3B.
'It is far too early to celebrate the numbers.' 'They are still fairly weak compared to the pre-pandemic level.'
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